Yintoni i-UK Uncoupling esuka eYurophu inokuthi ithetha i-Ireland
Brexit kwaye akukho siphelo emehlweni ... emva kokunqoba kokhetho lukaNdunankulu uDavid Cameron, owabuyela kwi-Downing Street engu-10 engenazo i-Liberal lodger, uNick Clegg, umboniso wokuphuma eBrithani kwi-European Union (i-Brexit, ), sele isele ifike, ibe isetyenziswe ngoJuni wama-23. Ngomhla ka-24 kuJuni umphumo omangalisayo wavakaliswa - 51.89% abo bahlupha ukuvota ...
bavotelwe ukushiya i-European Union. Okubangela ukutshabalalisa ngokukhawuleza kukaCameron njengombutho wezopolitiko, kwaye (emva kokukhethwa kwenyathelo elifanayo lokuhlaziya) iThere May, njengeNkokheli yePolisi ye-Conservative kunye noNdunankulu. Ngamana kwangethuba wachaza ukuba uya kucela i-Article 50 yeSivumelwano seYurophu yaseYurophu, isisemthethweni sokukhupha ilizwe kwi-EU. Ngesimo sengqondo esithi "siya kuba nekhekhe lethu, size sisidle" - amalungelo anqwenelekayo e-UK. Igama lokugqibela kulo lonke eli lingazange lithethwe ...
Kuze kube ngoku, ngoko-xhaphaza. Kutheni oku kubalulekile kwiRiphabhliki yase-Ireland?
Okubalulekileyo kuba oku, kunokuthi, utshintshe yonke ingcamango yokuhamba umda we-Ireland.
I-Specter ye-Brexit
Okokuqala safumana "i-Grexit" njenge-European Union boogieman, ukushiya (okanye ukuxothwa) kweGrisi ukusuka kwi-Eurozone kunye / okanye i-EU. Emva koko i-specter ye "Brexit" yaqala ukugqithisa, ngakumbi ngakumbi.
Akunjalo kuba empeleni wayefuna ukulahla i-United Kingdom, kodwa ngenxa yokuba ii-Eurosceptics zaqala ukufumana indawo engaphezulu. Akunjalo nje ngokubonakala kwe-UKIP, kodwa nakwezinye iindawo eziqhelekileyo.
Ngoko ke, ngokuqhelekileyo, uPam Cameron, emva kokuba esaphila ukuvakaliswa kokuzimela kukaScotland kunye ne-United Kingdom (nangona i-SNC yaseScottish National Party i-SNP ibonakala ifake umfanekiso ochanekileyo), yazibophezela ukuba ibambe iqela lokubonisa ukuba ngaba IYurophu Yomanyano kufuneka inqatshelwe.
NgeBrithani (okanye kunoko i-UK, kodwa "ukexit" ayinzwisi kakuhle kakhulu) ukuyishiya. Oku akuhambisani neminqweno yazo zonke iindawo zase-UK - zombini iScotland kunye neMntla Ireland bavota ukuba bahlale e-EU.
Kwaye nangona yonke i-weirdo ebudeni bezopolitiko ekudwebeni umfanekiso we-European Union ngokwenene "yiReit Reich" phantsi kolawulo lwentsimbi luka-Angela Merkel, wonke umbuso ukhululekile ukuvumela ubulungu bawo buphele. Okanye unako, kwiimeko ezikhethekileyo, kucelwa ukuba ushiye iposi ngokukhawuleza.
Brexit - Ngaphandle kweIreland?
IRiphabhliki yase-Ireland kunye ne-United Kingdom isebenzisene ubulungu be-EU kwiminyaka yama-1960 kwaye ekugqibeleni yahlanganisana ngowe-1973, izisa yonke iIreland ibe yumbumbano - kwaye ukususela ngaloo ndlela kubonakala kunesimo sengqondo sababini "iphasela" malunga. Oku kunjalo, akunjalo. Bobabini iRiphabhlikhi yase-Ireland kunye ne-UK zizimeleyo, zizwe ezizimeleyo, kwaye akukho mhlathi obophelela omnye komnye kwimimiselo ye-EU.
Umzekelo ... iYurophu. IRiphabhliki yase-Ireland yayiphakathi kwamalungu okuqala e-Eurozone , ngoxa i-United Kingdom igcina iPound Sterling njengemali emelekileyo. Ngoko, ngokucacileyo, iindlela ezahlukeneyo zinokwenzeka.
Kodwa ngaba zifuna?
Kuba, xa ehla kwiinyaniso, i-Ireland iya kujoyina kwi-Brexit ...
ubuncinane amabandla ayisithandathu enza i-Northern Ireland, inxalenye ye-United Kingdom. Nangona zonke izicwangciso ezingaqhelekanga zengxelo ehlukeneyo yaseNyakatho ye-Ireland njengoko kucetyiswa nguSinn Fein.
Ireland Emva kwe Brexit
Ukucinga ukuba i-UK ivole i-Brexit, oku akuyi kukhawuleza kwaye kuthathe ixesha-kodwa kuya kuba nemiphumo ehlayo ye-pike. Ngenye, iRiphabhliki yase-Ireland iya kukhangela ngokukhawuleza ukuba umda ukuya eNyakatho yeIreland uya kuba "umda ongaphandle" we-EU, efuna ukulawula okungakumbi, ukhuseleko, kunye nemaphepha ngaphezu kwexesha (oko kungabikho nanye). Nangona i-traffic cross-border iye yahlaziywa njenge-sloth kwindawo yokuhlala emanzini kwiminyaka edlulileyo, oku kuya kufuneka kutshintshe.
Kwaye ... ukuthengwa kweempahla kwamanye amagunya kuya kuthotyelwa kwimithetho emitsha, kunye neerhafu, kunye-kwaye akukho kwakhona ukugcinwa ngotywala obuncitshisiweyo "ngasenyakatho", ngaphandle kokuba ulungele ukuwela ngaphaya kwemida.
Ukukhankanya ukuhamba kwemida emininzi - ukuhamba kwimizila emngceleni wemida kuya kuthi, ngaphezu kwamathuba amaninzi, kube yinto yokulala. Ngeendlela eziwela kunye nokugqithisa umda, akukho mntu uya kufuna ukujongana neenkcukacha zokujonga nganye ngemizuzu emihlanu. Yaye njengokuba imali yeendlela ezintsha zincinci, iindlela zokubuyela emva ziya kuba yimizila emininzi yethrafikhi.
Ngokubhekiselele kuqoqosho jikelele - emva kwe-Brexit, iinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe kuya kufuneka zigqibe isigqibo sokuba ziza kukufumana phi ngononophelo olukhulu, iNorthern Ireland ayisayi kuba yisango elixhaswe kakhulu kwiYurophu (njengoko ku-EU), kwaye iRiphabhliki yase-Ireland ayiyi kuba yerhafu isango lomngane kumakethi yase-UK.
I-Brexit kunye noKhenketho
Ngoku nantsi ingqungquthela ... ngaba i-brexit enokuthi ibe neyokuwa okukhulu kwezokhenketho eya e-Irland? Ndiyathetha, ngaphandle kwento ecacileyo, ukufakwa kwakhona kokulawulwa kwimijelo engaphakathi-Irish?
Ngokombono wam, iziphumo kwiindwendwe zangaphandle ziza kuba zizodwa, ukuba ungayihoxisi ukufuduka kwamanye amazwe kunye nokulawulwa kwamasiko, kunye nokucwangciswa kwezihlandlo zokuqhuba, uthi, iBellfast ukuya eDublin. Ewe, kuya kufuneka uhambe kwiindawo ezincinci. Kodwa oku kuya kuba nempembelelo encinci kumfanekiso omkhulu ongenakukukhathazeka ngawo.
Ngokubhekiselele kuzo zonke ezinye izinto ezibalulekileyo, ezi zinto aziyi kutshintsha. Emva kweBexxit enokuthi, abahambi ukuya e-Ireland baya kusadingeka bazi ukuba
- ii-visa zombuso omnye azivumelekanga ngokuthe ngqo kwizinye,
- kukho iirhafu ezimbini ezisetyenziswayo, i-Euro kunye nePound Sterling,
- imiqathango yokukhawuleza kunye nemizila iya kuba seekhilomitha e-UK, kwiikhilomitha kwiRiphabhuliki yase-Ireland.
Siphila nale minyaka, ngoko i-Brexit ayiyi kuba yinto yonke yokuguqula.